Education

Ph.D. (Science), Probability Theory & Mathematical Statistics, Wuhan University, 1998.09–2003.06

B.Sc. (Science), Applied Mathematics, Wuhan University, 1994.09–1998.06

Work Experience

Professor, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, 2019.08–present

Associate Professor, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, 2006.06–2019.08

Lecturer, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, 2003.07–2006.06

Research Interests

Financial econometrics; systemic financial risk & risk management; catastrophe risk; reinsurance; non-life actuarial science

Honors & Awards

1.First Prize, Beijing Higher Education Teaching Achievement Award (7th awardee), 2021

2.Outstanding Advisor Award, 11th National Undergraduate Market Research & Analysis Competition (Grand Final), First Prize, 2021

3.Excellent Undergraduate Thesis Advisor, Renmin University of China, 2019

4.RUC Teaching Achievement Award, University Second Prize (2nd awardee), 2017

5.RUC Outstanding Class Advisor, 2016

Funding

1.Research on Risk Management & Actuarial Models in the Digital Era, Ministry of Education Humanities & Social Sciences—Key Project (Base), Participant, 2023.01–2025.12

2.Tracking New Seed Sales Models & Building Regulatory Mechanisms, Department of Seed Industry, Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Affairs, PI, 2020.05–2020.12

3.Statistical Analysis of Plastic Film Use and Residue in Three Northwestern Provinces, National Agro-Ecological Station, Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Affairs, PI, 2020.05–2020.12

4.Main Targets & Indicators for National Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan, National Development & Reform Commission, Participant, 2019

5.Actuarial & Statistical Models of Catastrophe Insurance and Applications, National Social Science Fund—Major Project, Participant, 2016–2021

6.Big-Data-Based Actuarial Statistical Models & Risk Management, MOE Humanities & Social Sciences—Key Project (Base), Participant, 2016–2020

7.Firm Heterogeneity & Optimal Monetary Policy, National Natural Science Foundation of China, PI, 2014–2017

8.Theoretical Models & Numerical Simulation of China’s Monetary Policy Using Micro Survey Data, NSFC, PI, 2009–2012

9.Solution Methods for Nonlinear DSGE Models & Applications to China’s Monetary Policy, RUC Scientific Research Fund, PI, 2013–2016

10.International Factors and China’s General Price Level, RUC Scientific Research Fund, PI, 2009

Teaching Reform Projects

1.RUC “123” First-Class Course Construction — Actuarial Models, 2023

2.RUC “123” First-Class Course Construction — Non-life Actuarial Science, 2022

Publications (Selected)

International Journals:

1.Huang,Y., Wang,Z., Xiao,Z.(2025) Option Return Predictability Via Machine Learning: New Evidence From China. Journal of Futures Markets.

2.Sun, T., Li, Y., Xiao, Z., Ding, Y., Wang, X. (2023). Semiparametric copula method for semi-competing risks data subject to interval censoring and left truncation: Application to disability in elderly. Statistical Methods in Medical Research.

3.Xiao, Z., Yao, M., Tang, X., & Sun, L. (2019). Identifying critical supply chains: an input-output analysis for Food-Energy-Water Nexus in China.  Ecological Modelling ,  392 , 31-37.

4.Wen, F., Xiao, J., Xia, X., Chen, B., Xiao, Z., & Li, J. (2019). Oil prices and chinese stock market: Nonlinear causality and volatility persistence.  Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ,  55 (6), 1247-1263.

5.Hu, A., Lu, J., & Xiao, Z. (2011). Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models.  Annals of Economics and Finance ,  12 (1), 157-181.

6.Hu, D. H., & Xiao, Z. Y. (2007). The Invariance Principle for p-Chain.  Acta Mathematica Sinica, English Series ,  23 (1), 41-56.

7.Zheng-yan, X., & Xu-song, X. (2003). Optimal portfolio rules with habit formation and preference for wealth.  Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences ,  8 (4), 1057-1060.

8.Xiao, Z. Y. (2003). The invariant measure and ergodicity of Markov chains in random environments.  Journal of Mathematics (PRC) ,  23 (1), 19-24.

Chinese-language journals (titles translated):

9.Chen, X., Liu, L., Xiao, Z., et al. (2025). Identification and Optimization of Monetary Policy Objectives—An Empirical Study Based on Machine Learning. Statistical Research, 42(07), 45–55.

10.Xiao, Z., Chen, K., Zhou, X. (2025). Policy Effects of China’s Cross-Border Capital Flow Management: A Perspective Based on International Public Sentiment. International Finance Research, (07), 3–14.

11.Xiao, Z., Jiang, Y., Chen, K., et al. (2025). Evaluating the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies in Preventing Systemic Risk: Time and Structural Dimensions. Economic Theory and Economic Management, 45(06), 37–56.

12.Xiao, Z., Cheng, S. (Online first, 2025). The Interaction Between Sentiment and Financial Stability: A Test Using Pattern Causality Algorithms. Systems Engineering, 1–27.

13.Xiao, Z., Cheng, S., & Chen, Y. (2024). Financial Regulation and Systemic Risk Contagion in the Non-banking Sector. Research on Economics and Management, 45(09), 3–21.

14.Chen, X., Chen, K., Wang, Z., & Xiao, Z. (2024). Determinants of Intercity Housing Price Divergence. Economic Theory and Economic Management, 44(02), 49–64.

15.Xiao, Z., Chen, K., & Liu, Z. (2023). Heterogeneous Effects of Household Leveraging on Consumption—A Causal Inference Approach Integrating Machine Learning. Economic Trends, (12), 26–40.

16.Chen, X., Cheng, S., Chen, K., & Xiao, Z. (2023). Determinants of First-Tier City Housing Prices: A Machine Learning Perspective. Nankai Journal (Philosophy & Social Sciences), (06), 146–163.

17.Xiao, Z., Chen, X., Chen, K., & Chen, Y. (2022). Identifying the Drivers of Inflation—A Re-examination Using Machine Learning. Statistical Research, 39(06), 132–147.

18.Xiao, Z., Xie, C., & Chen, Y. (2021). Does Noise on Stock Network Platforms Affect Stock Price Synchronicity? Economic Theory and Economic Management, 41(10), 65–80.

19.Chen, X., Liu, L., Xiao, Z., & Chen, Y. (2021). Differential Drivers of Sectoral vs. Aggregate Deflation—A Machine Learning View. China Industrial Economics, (07), 26–44.

20.Xiao, Z. & Ren, M. (2021). Media Risk Perception and Early Warning of Systemic Financial Risk. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, (09), 63–74.

21.Xiao, Z., Liu, L., Zhao, T., & Chen, Y. (2020). Can Deep Neural Networks Improve GDP Forecasting? Research on Economics and Management, 41(07), 3–17.

22.Xiao, Z., Zhou, X., & Zhou, S. (2019). Can Online Sentiment Influence Herding in the Stock Market? Research on Financial and Economic Issues, (09), 62–71.

23.Xiao, Z., Huang, Y., & Wang, Z. (2019). The Stabilizing Effect of Central Bank Communication on the Stock Market—An Event Study. Economic Trends, (07), 80–93.

24.Xiao, Z., Wang, Z., & Chen, Y. (2019). Price Transmission Between PPI and CPI in China’s ‘New Normal’. Research on Economics and Management, 40(04), 14–24+64.

25.Xiao, Z. & Chen, W. (2017). Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Transmission, and SME Financing Costs—Evidence from Actual Financing Costs. Economic Review, (05), 79–90. doi:10.19361/j.er.2017.05.07.

26.Xiao, Z., Liu, Z., & Deng, M. (2016). Is Price-Based Monetary Policy Effective in the ‘New Normal’? World Economic Papers, (02), 59–79.

27.Guo, Y., Guo, J., & Xiao, Z. (2016). Optimal Monetary Policy under China’s Dual-Track Interest Rate System. Economic Trends, (03), 31–42.

28.Xiao, Z., Guo, Y., & Pan, L. (2015). The Welfare Cost of Credit Discrimination in China. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (10), 46–55.

29.Xiao, Z. & Gao, R. (2015). Do Short Sales Improve Price Informativeness? Evidence from China’s Securities Lending. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, (10), 45–52.

30.Yin, H., Xiao, Z., & Liu, H. (2015). An Improved ADL Model for Studying and Forecasting China’s GDP Growth Rate. Applied Mathematics, 28(02), 457–463.

31.Xiao, Z. & Gao, R. (2014). Do Stock Index Futures Stabilize China’s Stock Market? A Herding Perspective. Research on Economics and Management, (12), 55–60.

32.Xiao, Z., Guo, Y., & Peng, L. (2013). Firm Size and Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (09), 74–86.

33.Xiao, Z. & Yao, Y. (2012). Comparing Welfare Costs of Inflation and Economic Slowdown in China. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (05), 12–20.

34.Xiao, Z. & Liu, K. (2012). Urban Household Wealth in China: A Behavioral Perspective. Economic Research Journal, 47(04), 28–39.

35.Xiao, Z. & Peng, B. (2011). Housing Prices and China’s Monetary Policy Rule. Statistical Research, 28(11), 40–49.

36.Xiao, Z., Cheng, D., & Dai, Y. (2011). Wealth Redistribution Effects of Inflation Shocks—China vs. the U.S. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (06), 49–58.

37.Xiao, Z., Yao, Y., & Tang, S. (2011). Micro-foundations of Inflation Expectations in China. Statistical Research, 28(03), 8–14.

38.Xiao, Z., An, D., & Yi, Y. (2009). Do International Commodity Prices Affect China’s CPI? A BVAR Analysis. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (08), 17–23.

39.Xiao, Z. & Hu, D. (2006). Growth Rates and Extinction Probabilities of Multidimensional Branching Chains in Random Environments. Progress in Mathematics, (06), 685–698.

40.Xiao, Z. & Chen, Y. (2006). Habit Formation, Asset Pricing, and Markov Chain Algorithms. Statistics & Decision, (16), 15–17.

41.Xiao, Z. & Chen, Y. (2006). Incomplete Markets, Uncertainty, and China’s Interest Income Tax. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (05), 40–46.

42.Xiao, Z. & Chen, Y. (2006). Measuring Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Approach Based on Behavioral Economics. Journal of Renmin University of China, (03), 61–67.

43.Xiao, Z. & Ma, L. (2006). Interest Rate Risk and Urban Household Consumption in China. Journal of Financial Research, (03), 94–102.

44.Chen, Y., Xiao, Z. (2005). An Asset Pricing Model with Gaussian Shocks and Habit Formation. Economic Theory and Economic Management, (10), 22–27.

45.Xiao, Z., Tang, S., & Shi, D. (2005). Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations in China. Journal of Financial Research, (09), 51–62.

46.Xiao, Z. & Chen, Y. (2004). Inflation Expectations in China: A Survey-Based Study. Journal of Financial Research, (11), 1–18.

47.Bi, X., Xiao, Z., & Li, Z. (2004). Relative Wealth and the Equity Premium Puzzle. Finance & Trade Economics, (03), 68–72.

48.Chen, Y., Xiao, Z., & Zou, H. (2003). Wealth Preference, Habit Formation, and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth. China Economic Quarterly, (04), 147–156.

49.Xiao, Z., Hu, D. (2003). State Classification of Wreath-Product Markov Chains. Journal of Mathematics and Physics, (03), 306–313.

50.Xiao, Z. (2003). Invariant Measures and Ergodicity of Markov Chains in Random Environments (in English). Journal of Mathematics, (01), 19–24.

51.Xue, N., Xiao, Z., Hu, D. (2001). Invariant Measures and Ergodic Limits of Wreath-Product Markov Chains. Journal of Wuhan University (Natural Science Edition), (01), 17–21.

Books & Textbooks

1.Quantitative Risk Management, Renmin University Press, 2024 (co-edited with Guan Guohui)

2.Actuarial Models (4th ed.), Renmin University Press, 2023 (editor)

3.The Dynamic Nature of China’s Inflation, Science Press, 2012 (monograph)

4.Actuarial Models — China Actuary Qualification Exam Series, China Financial & Economic Publishing House, 2010 (chief editor)

5.Risk Theory, Renmin University Press, 2008 (author)

6.Non-life Actuarial Science, Renmin University Press, 2006 (co-authored with Gao Hongzhong)

7.Learning in Games (translation), Renmin University Press, 2004 (co-translated with Hou Chengqi)

Teaching

1.Undergraduate: Actuarial Models; Non-life Actuarial Science; Risk Theory; Interest Theory; Applied Stochastic Processes; Mathematical Statistics; Real Analysis

2.Graduate: Financial Machine Learning; Non-life Actuarial Practice; Risk Management; Quantitative Risk Management; Reinsurance

3.Online: Actuarial Models (XuetangX)

Professional Service

1.Independent Director, China People’s Pension Insurance Co., Ltd., 2024.11–2027.11

2.Standing Council Member, Risk Management & Actuarial Science Branch, Chinese Field Statistics Society, 2021.07–present

3.Member, 1st Committee, Economics of Aging Branch, China Association of Gerontology & Geriatrics, 2022.07–present